In lieu of traditional All-Star festivities, the NHL opted to put on an international best-on-best tournament this season. The resulting 4 Nations Face-Off has been a resounding success, attracting massive viewership and surprising cultural relevance, which has extended to the sports betting realm.
Sportsbooks across the United States report that the 4 Nations games thus far have outperformed average regular season NHL contests. DraftKings says that its four most-bet hockey games of the season have been from the tournament, while FanDuel says that 4 Nations contests are averaging over six times as many bets as an average NHL game this regular season.
In particular, Saturday’s first USA-Canada matchup — an epic 3-1 victory for the Americans — was, bar none, the most-bet hockey game of the season. FanDuel says that the contest saw 13 times more bets than all of the three-on-three games that made up last year’s NHL All-Star event combined, and 11 times more bets than an average NHL game this regular season.
Caesars Sportsbook’s head of hockey Karry Shreeve says that the book is handling “seven to 10 times” more money for each game, with the first North American rivalry showdown bringing in even more.
“That game we saw just as much handle as we would in a Stanley Cup game,” Shreeve told ESPN. “I think there’s a chance that for Thursday’s final, we could get up to almost Game 7 numbers, which is just incredible in terms of what you’re asking for in the middle of February for hockey. I mean this is completely unexpected and certainly unprecedented.”
While the storied USA-Canada rivalry always raises the stakes, this year’s iteration seems particularly heated given the long layoff of best-on-best action, “words that have been exchanged” between both teams, as well as “politically” motivated sentiments off the ice, per DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello.
“I think that all throws a little fire into it,” Avello told ESPN. “This is something that the fans love and these games are being bet heavily. This game Thursday is going to be a monster as far as betting is concerned, would outdo any All-Star game.”
With the elevated bettor attention and subsequent higher handle, bookmakers are putting their most diligent work into setting the lines for Thursday night’s championship.
“The 4 Nations has been great from a betting engagement standpoint, particularly as fans look for marquee events coming out of football season,” ESPN BET director of North American trading Adrian Horton said via email. “Thursday night feels like a Stanley Cup Final game from a trading perspective.”
That means the books are expecting a low total. Shreeve points out that, during last year’s playoffs, Game 7s were only seeing “three or four goals,” as teams tend to tighten up when the stakes are their highest. As such, Thursday’s over-under has sat at a consensus 5.5 for much of the week and has only juiced further to the under (-135 at ESPN BET); BetMGM reports 30% of bets on the under, but 39% of the money.
Additionally, the moneyline has stayed remarkably close all week, with ESPN BET keeping the game a pick ’em at -110 for each side. USA is getting a majority of the action at major American sportsbooks, leading BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini to say, “Canada winning would be a good outcome for the sportsbook.”
That said, there has been perhaps more support than expected for Canada: ESPN BET reports 46.1% of bets and 46.5% of handle backing the Canadians and BetMGM reports a 5% positive money split on their side. That tension, just as it should be felt on the ice in Boston, is keeping this betting line feeling truly championship caliber.
“This almost has a Game 7 feel to it, which is absolutely incredible, and so we’re going to treat it as such,” said Shreeve.
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