An incoming solar storm, also known as coronal mass ejection (CME), erupted from the sun on Jan. 21 and is currently on track to strike Earth with a glancing blow on Jan. 24-25.
The possible impact could spark minor geomagnetic storm conditions and possible northern lights at high latitudes such as northern Michigan and Maine.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts that the Kp index will peak at 5.33 over the next 48 hours, with G1 geomagnetic storm conditions possible tomorrow night (Jan. 24) from 10:00 p.m. EDT through 4:00 a.m. EDT on Jan. 25 (0300-0900 GMT on Jan. 25).
When CMEs strike Earth’s magnetosphere, they bring electrically charged particles called ions that collide with our planet’s magnetic field. These collisions can spark geomagnetic storms. During these storms, ions collide with atmospheric gases, releasing energy as light. This creates the stunning displays known as the northern lights, or Aurora Borealis, in the Northern Hemisphere, and the southern lights, or Aurora Australis, in the Southern Hemisphere.
“Heads up aurora chasers! CME INBOUND!” avid aurora chaser and PhD researcher Vincent Ledvina “The Aurora Guy” wrote in a post on X.
According to Ledvina, Kp levels of 5 to 6 are possible, so aurora chasers, charge those camera batteries
Heads up aurora chasers! CME INBOUND! Here is the NOAA SWPC ENLIL model for the CME from the M1.3 flare & filament eruption today. We have arrival at 3 UTC (+/-7h) on Jan 25th (Saturday). Kp 5-6 possible! This is nice timing for NA chasers. Get the camera batteries charged! pic.twitter.com/GwAMDloZDBJanuary 23, 2025
NOAA classifies geomagnetic storms using a G-scale, which ranks their intensity from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme). The recent geomagnetic storm predictions are rated G1, indicating minor storm conditions.
The Kp index is a scale from 0 to 9 that measures geomagnetic activity with higher values indicating stronger disturbances and increased chances of auroras.
When will the geomagnetic storm occur?
Current forecasts predict possible G1 conditions overnight on Jan. 24-Jan. 25. Check out NOAA’s 3-day forecast for the latest timings.
Remember that space weather is inherently unpredictable and challenging to forecast much like Earth’s weather. While geomagnetic storm warnings at this level are relatively common, they sometimes result in minimal activity. However, they can also exceed initial predictions and intensify to higher geomagnetic storm levels. Stay optimistic, and be prepared to keep an eye on the skies—you never know when the auroras might put on an extraordinary display!
If you’re interested in tracking space weather and knowing when and where to spot auroras, download a space weather app that provides forecasts based on your location. One option I use is “My Aurora Forecast & Alerts,” available for both iOS and Android. However, any similar app should work well. I also use the “Space Weather Live” app, which is available on iOS and Android, to get a deeper understanding of whether the current space weather conditions are favorable for aurora sightings.
Article by:Source: daisy.dobrijevic@space.com (Daisy Dobrijevic)
