-Analysis-
CAIRO — Since it was signed in 1979, the Egypt–Israel peace treaty negotiated at Camp David has never been as vulnerable as it has been in recent days.
The treaty’s cancellation is no longer just a means for Cairo to pressure Tel Aviv and its sponsor Washington; since U.S. President Donald Trump revealed his plans to transfer the residents of Gaza, Egyptian institutions are seriously assessing the scenario and its repercussions.
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Following Trump’s shocking remarks about uprooting Palestinians from Gaza to “new, safer and more beautiful communities with new and modern homes” in Egypt and Jordan, Egyptian government sources say that the U.S. president was launching a “trial balloon” to encourage his country’s allies in the Middle East to offer other solutions and alternatives.
Those who hold this view believe that Trump aims to pressure Palestinian resistance factions, primarily Hamas, to disappear from the scene, and to pave the road for the Palestinian Authority or other parties to take over Gaza’s governance. They also believe that Trump aims to pressure Saudi Arabia to normalize its ties with Israel. The kingdom has set the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders as a condition to any normalization deal with Israel.
Yet Trump appears to be doubling down on his proposal, adding on Monday that Gaza residents would not be allowed to return.
Achieving Trump’s goals would be a “lifeline” for the troubled Israeli prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu’s allies and opponents accuse him of failing to achieve his goals in Gaza. His coalition government is also on the verge of collapse, which could expose him to being held politically and judicially accountable for his government’s failures on Oct. 7, 2023.
To avoid this fate, Netanyahu has turned to Trump, “Israel’s greatest friend,” — and the ruling right-wing coalition in Tel Aviv quickly embraced the far-fetched proposal as a solution that guarantees Israel’s security and stability.
This new version of “peace of power,” however, could trigger just the opposite result for the entire Middle East.
A Palestinian affair
Trump has been hoping to reactivate the Abraham Accords, seeing a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia as the key to regional stability. Yet Riyadh rejected his Gaza proposal faster than expected, issuing a statement reaffirming that its position on the establishment of a Palestinian state is “firm and unshakable and is not subject to negotiation or outbidding,” and stressed that it will not establish relations with Israel without establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
“Saudi Arabia will continue its relentless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that,” the statement said.
Hamas meanwhile said that managing the Strip and arranging its “day after” affairs is a purely Palestinian affair and that no one has the right to interfere.
The Israeli government, which embraced “Trump’s real estate deal” to turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East,” has already pushed for the transfer of Gaza people. The occupation still restricts the delivery of tents, caravans and shelters as well as food and medical supplies.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also said in a statement Thursday that he instructed the military to prepare a plan to facilitate the movement of large numbers of Palestinians from Gaza through land crossings as well as “special arrangements for exit by sea and air.”
Egypt’s response
Hours after Katz’s statement, the Egyptian foreign ministry issued a statement reflecting its sense of danger. It stressed that Egypt would reject any proposal or vision that aims to liquidate the Palestinian cause by displacing the Palestinian people from their historical land and seizing it, whether temporarily or permanently. The ministry warned that such transfer plans would have repercussions on the entire region and on the foundations of peace.
Cairo is working to form a unified Arab position to counter plans of the United States and Israel.
In parallel, the Associated Press news agency reported that Egypt has warned that an expulsion of Palestinians would destabilize the region and undermine its peace treaty with Israel. Cairo has made clear to the Trump administration and Israel that it will resist any such proposal, and that the peace deal with Israel — which has stood for nearly half a century — is at risk.
The next day, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty contacted his Arab counterparts to mobilize a unified Arab position rejecting any “measures aimed at transferring the Palestinian people from their land or encouraging their transfer to other countries, or infringing on their legitimate, inalienable rights,” according to the Egyptian foreign ministry.
Cairo is working to form a unified Arab position to counter plans of the United States and Israel, which do not only target Palestinian rights but are also likely to undermine the stability of the regional countries, most notably Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Netanyahu responded to the Saudi condition of the establishment of a Palestinian state, saying that the Kingdom could establish it on Saudi territories. Netanyahu’s comments promoted strong condemnation from Egypt and other Arab nations.
Worldcrunch 🗞 Extra!
Know more • The Camp David Accords, signed in 1978 between Egypt and Israel under U.S. mediation, laid the groundwork for the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty. The agreement stipulated that Egypt would regain the Sinai Peninsula, which Israel had occupied since 1967, in exchange for recognizing Israel and establishing diplomatic relations. It also demilitarized much of Sinai, allowing only limited Egyptian forces near the border, with a Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) monitoring compliance.
The treaty remains the cornerstone of Egypt-Israel relations, ensuring peace in exchange for U.S. military and economic aid. If Egypt were to break the treaty in response to U.S. President Donald Trump forcibly displacing Palestinians into Sinai, the consequences could be severe, as reported by the U.S. government-owned Arabic-language satellite TV channel Al-Hurra News. Such a move would violate the accords’ terms, potentially leading to Israeli military intervention and escalating regional tensions.
Egypt has received billions of dollars in U.S. military aid since signing the peace agreement, and breaking the treaty could put this funding at risk, further straining its already struggling economy. Additionally, a significant military buildup along the border would impose a heavy economic burden on Egypt, which is already grappling with domestic financial difficulties. If Israel were to launch an assault on Rafah, the situation could spiral further, potentially dragging Egypt into direct conflict — an outcome that could have catastrophic consequences for the entire region. — Hagar Farouk (read more about the Worldcrunch method here).
A new Nakba?
When Trump was asked about what he expected from Arab reactions to his plan for Gaza, he said, “Nothing,” adding they objected when he announced moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. He is betting that the objection will ultimately be limited, as usual, to some statements and declarations that will not change his plans.
But the displacement of the people of Gaza and their deportation to other countries, and the United States’ seizure of the Strip to rebuild it, are different from moving the embassy to Jerusalem or recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights of Syria.
Our threat to cancel the peace agreement is a calculated threat.
The matter will not stop at the loss of the Palestinian cause and rights of the Palestinians. It threatens the national security of regional counties and their rulers. The Arab regimes are well aware that any negligence could lead to a new Nakba, or catastrophe that would open the “gates of hell” in the region. The repercussions of the Oct. 7 attack will inevitably extend to regional capitals if their rulers accept the Trump-Netanyahu project.
President Anwar al-Sadat of Egypt, left, meets United States President Jimmy Carter, center, and U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, right, at Camp David for the a meeting during the summit to discuss a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1978.
Calculated threat
“We are waging a political and diplomatic battle similar to the [Suez Crisis] battle we fought in 1956 during the tripartite aggression against Egypt,” said an Egyptian official familiar with the issue, who stressed that Cairo would not give up its position under any circumstances and is prepared to deal with any pressure.
We have raised our readiness for any potential confrontation
Another Egyptian government source said that the influential Arab countries are in agreement with the Egyptian position, and are ready to support Cairo if Washington exerts economic pressure.
“In addition to the diplomatic battle, we have raised our readiness for any potential confrontation,” he said. “Our threat to cancel the peace agreement is a calculated threat.”
The official said the Trump administration will back down, because he won’t bear pushing the entire region into “a military confrontation whose geographical scope or repercussions on the interests of the entire world are unknown.”
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