Germany will hold a snap national election on February 23 following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition.
Currently, the CDU/CSU leads in our polling aggregate by 8 points over the AfD.
The far-right AfD has gained 4.7 points since June 2024. The SPD, the current leaders in the national parliament, have lost 12.0 points since the last federal election, and are currently in third place.
Germany has two centrist, “big-tent” parties: Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the opposition conservatives, an alliance of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
Both have lost support in recent years, with smaller parties such as the Greens and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining ground.
The SPD, conservatives, Greens and AfD are all fielding candidates for chancellor.
Also running are the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), the far-left Linke and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), who are all at risk of missing the 5% threshold to make it into parliament, according to opinion polls.
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