Israel is seeking an indefinite extension to the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza rather than moving to a planned second stage designed to lay the groundwork for a more lasting settlement, several people familiar with the matter have said.
With only days remaining in the first phase, Israel has avoided engaging in planned talks on the so-called second stage that was meant to fully end the conflict, the people have said. It has left no discernible progress more than three weeks after the talks were supposed to start.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is instead seeking “a phase one plus”, according to two people familiar with the negotiations, that would aim to secure the release of dozens of remaining hostages while avoiding any commitment to permanently stop the war or completely withdraw troops from Gaza.
The initial 42-day phase of the complex three-stage deal brokered by the US, Egypt and Qatar last month is scheduled to conclude on Saturday. Diplomats familiar with the negotiations see the best-case scenario as a temporary extension of the truce, although a major hurdle is whether Hamas would agree to Israel’s demand to keep releasing hostages.
US President Donald Trump’s envoy to the region, Steve Witkoff, told CNN on Sunday that while he expected the second stage “to go forward” he stressed the two sides had to first “get an extension of phase one”. Witkoff added he would probably travel to the region on Wednesday, but on Tuesday Israeli officials said no such plans had been confirmed.
The ceasefire agreement includes a clause specifying that if talks for the second stage have started, phase one is automatically extended — but without any commitments to hostage releases. Mediators hoped the talks over the second stage would begin this week, said a diplomat briefed on the talks.
But Netanyahu has taken an increasingly hard line on Gaza in recent weeks, apparently with the backing of the Trump administration.
In a speech to Israeli military officers on Sunday, Netanyahu laid out four maximalist conditions for ending the war: the return of all Israeli hostages, the removal of Hamas from power in Gaza, the dismantling of the militant group’s fighting force, and the demilitarisation of the territory.
“Let there be no doubt: we will complete the goals of the war,” Netanyahu said.
“This can be achieved through negotiations, and it can also be achieved in a different way,” he added, in an apparent reference to previous threats to restart the war on a scale that he has said will surpass even the previous 15 months of conflict, which turned much of Gaza into rubble and sparked a humanitarian crisis.
Current and former western and regional officials are sceptical that Hamas, despite fearing a resumption of the war, will agree to such terms. The option of Hamas leaders and fighters accepting exile — an idea repeatedly raised by Israeli officials — also seems far-fetched.
“Hamas has nothing more to lose. Strategically it’s suicide [if it agrees to Israel’s terms],” said a diplomat with years of experience negotiating directly with the Palestinian militant group.
Hamas has been consistent in its own demands with regard to a second phase of the ceasefire. It wants terms set out in the original agreement, including a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, an end to the war and the release of even greater numbers of Palestinian prisoners — including veteran militants — from Israeli prisons.
“Israel just isn’t there,” the diplomat added. “But the US and Witkoff think they can keep bullying everyone and get a deal.”
Several people with knowledge of the talks said the most likely outcome was an extension to the halt in fighting. One person familiar with Israeli government deliberations said Netanyahu was seeking another six-week extension, while international mediators were pushing for a fortnight.
Analysts say both sides may have an interest in delaying a reckoning for several more weeks.
Hamas may want to allow Gazans to see out the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts this weekend, in peace. And Netanyahu faces a looming deadline towards the end of March to pass a budget; a failure to do so would automatically trigger snap elections. Far-right members of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition have threatened to topple the government if the premier agrees to fully end the war.
One major sticking point could be if Israel presses demands for weekly hostage releases to continue through any extension of the first phase. “It will not happen without the release of hostages,” Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar told European officials in Brussels on Monday.
The diplomat briefed on the talks said Hamas “won’t accept that” because “it’s a violation of the deal, and mediators have been very clear it won’t be accepted”.
Twenty-nine Israelis and five Thai foreign workers have been freed from captivity in the past five weeks, along with hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
Hamas and Israel had been at loggerheads since the weekend over alleged violations of the deal, but late on Tuesday the militant group announced that an agreement had been reached to move ahead with the release of some 600 Palestinian detainees and the simultaneous return of the remains of four Israeli hostages planned for Thursday.
After their return, 59 Israelis and foreign nationals, less than half of them believed to be alive, will still be held by Hamas.
A former US official said the “pretence” of negotiations would “end before long”. “The ceasefire will dribble on for a bit . . . and then [Israel] will use the stick. The war will resume.”
Much will hinge on whether Trump backs such a move, or — similar to last month ahead of the first phase — exerts pressure on Netanyahu to agree a follow-on second stage.
On Friday, the US president told Fox News that “I am really [fine]” with either decision made by Netanyahu.
A person familiar with US-Israel deliberations said Trump officials “won’t care if the war restarts”.
“It’s a different context now than what it was in January, and the war may look different than what it did previously,” they said, adding that the mood around Netanyahu appeared “triumphalist and deeply victorious”.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s closest confidant and strategic affairs minister, was recently put in charge of the Israeli negotiating team, sidelining the country’s foreign and domestic spy chiefs who had been handling the sensitive talks.
Dermer spent much of the past week in the US in meetings with Witkoff and other Trump administration officials — and not in either Doha or Cairo, where mediators with direct channels of communication with Hamas are located.
Negotiating an agreement with Trump would be critical to whatever came next, said the person with knowledge of Israeli government deliberations.
They added: “Netanyahu wants no more Hamas — that’s what he’s looking for.”
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