While Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives’ third majority win was obviously the most significant development of this week’s Ontario election, but Thursday night’s results also brought other political ramifications.
That includes vindication of the PC party’s strategy of making the campaign about U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threat, and successfully selling Ford as the best leader to deal with it.
“The Conservatives correctly calculated that that this would be the ballot question because of what’s happening with the Trump administration and [that] Mr. Ford would do well on that ballot question,” said Jonathan Malloy, political science professor at Carleton University in Ottawa.
Another takeaway is whether the costly snap election was worth it, or just “a $190 million exercise in preserving the status quo,” said Andrea Lawlor, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University in Hamilton.
“We saw so little movement in terms of seats.”
According to the unofficial results, the PCs were elected or leading with 80 seats, followed by the NDP with 27, the Liberals with 14, the Greens with 2 and one seat held by an independent candidate.
Here are some key party takeaways from the results by party:
Progressive Conservatives: ‘A majority can get the job done’
Ford became the first Ontario leader to win a third majority since 1959. His party is currently elected or leading in 80 seats — just one more than they had when the legislature dissolved in January, and three fewer than the party picked up in its 2022 majority win.
This means the Conservatives will retain around 65 per cent of the total seat count in the Ontario legislature.
From Ford’s historic victory to a humbling loss in Mississauga for Crombie, check out the highlights from the province’s snap winter election, waged in the face of Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
Although a huge victory, the party had been hoping for a larger share Queen’s Park, in the 90- or 90-plus seat range. Ford himself, when announcing back in January that he would be triggering an election, said they needed the “largest mandate in Ontario’s history to move this province forward.”
To that end, the PCs had targeted a number of ridings they had hoped they could flip, but were mostly unsuccessful.
However, Lawlor noted that while much attention is on the overall number of PC seats, it’s also important to consider the extra time they’ve secured to govern with a solid majority.
“At the end of the day, 90 seats or 83 seats, a majority can get the job done in the legislature without the support of the Opposition.”
NDP: ‘In a holding pattern’
Some polling had suggested NDP Leader Marit Stiles may not have fared well election night, and that her party was going to lose ground to the Liberals. They did end up with a lower vote share (around 18.6 per cent) total than the Liberals (around 30 per cent.)
But the party won its seats by small margins and ended up with a larger seat total than the Liberals — albeit one fewer than the NDP held at dissolution.
Lawlor said that while the party didn’t increase its number of seats, it managed to hold its position, avoiding the potential loss of progressive votes to the Liberals.
“It’s not a loss. But I wouldn’t say it’s an overwhelming declaration of victory either.”
However, Malloy also pointed out the Ontario NDP has won official opposition status in three straight provincial elections.
“But their inability to gain further traction is really quite remarkable,” he said. “They seem to be in a holding pattern.”
Liberals: ‘They’ve got a long way to go’
The provincial Liberals had three objectives —return to official party status, return to official opposition and win a seat for their leader, Bonnie Crombie. In the end, they met the benchmark of 12 seats to regain official party status, but failed on the other two.
“I think it’s bittersweet,” Malloy said. “When you think of how bad things have been for the Ontario Liberal Party for the last seven years, they had some good things happen to them [Thursday night].
They increased their seat count to become an official party and they increased their popular vote well ahead of the NDP, he said.
“They definitely improved but they’ve got a long way to go.”
Lawlor said the Liberals’ share of the popular vote may bring the party some relief, knowing there is still a group of Ontarians willing to get out and vote for it. Nearly one in three voters cast a ballot for the party.
She said if that had not materialized, the party would have been asking itself what is its role forward, specifically over the next four years as it’s relegated to such a small opposition.
As for Crombie’s future: The former Mississauga mayor has said she intends to stay on as party leader, although the Liberals could ask for a leadership review.
“I would suggest that with Crombie wanting to stay on, the party has no real interest in in changing leaders,” Lawlor said. “I don’t think there’s anyone lining up for the job.”
But Crombie’s task will be challenging without a seat, where media coverage often focuses on opposition parties keeping the government to account, Lawlor said.
“Crombie can still be effective outside of the House, but she really has to play for the media coverage to have herself be seen as somebody who is is holding Ford’s feet to the fire.”
Green Party: ‘Continuing to struggle’
The Green Party kept its two seats, including a third term for Leader Mike Schreiner in Guelph, but fell short of its hoopes of picking up a seat in Parry-Sound Muskoka for Matt Richter.
A win there would have suggested there may be some party growth. But as it stands, the Greens remain somewhat limited in their legislative presence, Lawlor said.
“At the end of the day, two seats is is not even approaching official party status. And therefore, you know, the Greens are continuing to struggle to gain ground in Ontario.”
Malloy said the results show that the Green Party has a presence in Ontario politics, but seems to still be largely leader-centric, much like the federal Green Party.
“There’s no sense of a larger institutionalized party or group that could spread to other regions.”
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