Here’s the plan: lower your expectations so when it all goes wrong, you curl up and bawl for a day or two only — not the entire week.
The intention is clear. This is not one of those hum hain Pakistani hum tou jeetenge type pieces, for we’ve done that plenty on these very pages. All it gets you in the end is trauma and ridicule at the hands of that one friend, that one colleague who does not care at all about cricket but cares a lot about rubbing it in the next morning.
So that route is a no-go. But if you’re still a sucker for chest-thumping, tune in to the many lumber one news channels and you’ll get your pre-tourney fix of why we’re going to win this time.
What we’ll do here, though, is prep you for the worst — so in the more likely chance that it hits you in late Feb or early March, you curl up and bawl for a day or two only — not the entire week.
So, here goes nothing:
Aqib Javed is not Plan A
Teams in all sports plan for major competitions years in advance, especially if they are the defending champs and that, too, on home soil. PCB? [Insert: ‘We don’t do that’ meme here].
The hallmark of Pakistan’s big-tournament preparations since time immemorial has been last-minute chaos — ditching Plans A, B, and C in favour of a completely untried and untested Plan S, which is exactly where it’s pulled from.
Since Mickey Arthur departed these shores in the summer of 2019, Pakistan has seen nine different men call themselves the national team’s head coach in various formats at various points. That equates to a rate of more than 1.5 coaches a year — something prime Roman Abramovich would be proud of.
When Gary Kirsten was hired last year as the head coach just a month before the disastrous T20 World Cup campaign, the hope was that he’d be the one calling shots in Champions Trophy, too. Yet, come Champions Trophy 2025, the South African is nowhere to be seen as he resigned in Oct. There goes Plan A.
The man who coached India to World Cup glory in 2011 has since been replaced by Aqib Javed. You can view Aqib Javed as a 1992 World Cup champion and a two-time PSL winner, or you can view him as a coach under whom Lahore Qalandars were a laughing stock and finished last multiple times, including in last year’s tournament.
Still, fortunately, Kirsten quitting came more than three months ago. And unless Aqib Javed has a new chapter to write in pre-tourney coaching departures, this is as good as we can realistically expect on the coaching front.
Babar Azam is not Babar Azam-ing anymore
The only constants Gen Z has known in Pakistan cricket are big tournament anguish and Babar Azam being a run machine almost anywhere, anytime. However, over the last two years, King Bobby has started to look a little human. Up until the Asia Cup 2023, he used to average a staggering 59.17 in ODIs, but since then, his numbers have dipped to 42.27 runs per innings — a deficit of nearly 17 runs.
Zoom in to his recent form, and the picture gets even gloomier. In the recent tri-series against New Zealand and South Africa, Babar failed to deliver and managed a high score of 29 across three outings. That leaves him with a 2025 ODI average of 20.66.
To make matters worse, for some reason, the team’s think tank decided to move him up to the opening slot from his preferred one-down position where he has played for most of his career, while averaging 60. For comparison, Babar’s ODI average as an opener across five matches stands at just 17.6.
Captain Mohammad Rizwan defended the move recently, saying that the gap that opened up at the top due to Saim Ayub’s injury had to be filled by someone — and who better than arguably the country’s most technically sound batter? Such is Babar’s craft that he may end up justifying the move, but as things stand, the logic and numbers do not indicate that it’s a gamble worth taking.
Over to you, Babar. Prove us wrong.
Fix what’s broken by breaking others
Regarding batting, here is something that would derail your confidence some more.
The batter for whom Babar has been shunted above is Saud Shakeel, who we all know is hugely talented and productive — but just not in the white-ball format.
In his 17-match ODI career, the lefty from Karachi has three fifties, two of which came in losing causes against England and South Africa, and the third one was against the not-so-mighty Netherlands.
He averages 26.15 with the bat and has a grand total of 340 runs in the format — a bulk of which were scored from the fifth and sixth positions. But now, he occupies Babar’s best spot. And the early signs suggest that the transition will be rough: Shakil got two games in the tri-nation series at one-down and returned scores of just 8 and 15.
And the man brought in to fill the gap left by Shakil’s promotion is Tayyab Tahir — another unknown quantity, and not just in the role but at international level, thanks to the six ODIs he’s ever played.
To sum it up, there was a void up top so Babar gets pulled from his favourite spot to play an unfamiliar role; then Shakil gets pulled from his position in the middle order to play an unfamiliar role at one-down; and then to fill the Shakil-sized hole in the middle order, Tahir is inducted, who is unfamiliar with this level altogether.
Genius!
Haris Rauf is not fit or fit enough
When Haris Rauf went down injured on Feb 8 against New Zealand, he was arguably the pick of the Pakistan bowlers. In his 6.2 overs that he was able to bowl before picking up a side strain, he had conceded just 19 runs and picked up the wicket of Tom Latham. That was the game in which Shaheen Afridi ended up conceding 88 runs and Naseem Shah 70 in their 10 overs each.
Until Rauf was bowling in the 37th over, Glenn Phillips had 18 off 25 balls. Once he was off the field, only then was Phillips able to turn his Superman mode as he finished with 106 runs off 74 balls.
Think what you may of Rauf, but he is an exceptional ODI pacer and an important part of Pakistan’s three-headed spin battery. While he is yet to be taken off the Champions Trophy roster, time is running out fast.
That, coupled with Saim Ayub’s absence, means Pakistan once again head into a major ICC tournament short of several first-choice players.
Conditions do not play to Pakistan’s strengths
All our lives, we’ve been told Pakistan produces best fast bowlers and that pace is our forte. On the other hand, the batters of almost all eras have left much to be desired. Read that with Pakistan’s ongoing spin famine, and it becomes clear that pace is the most potent weapon in this team’s arsenal.
Yet, the pitches seen in the recent tri-series were completely batting friendly. Of the eight innings of four matches in the tournament, five saw scores in excess of 300.
Our neighbours often prepare surfaces that suit them on home turf, but that’s a trick rarely practiced by the PCB in white-ball cricket. It’s not often that Pakistan gets to host an ICC event. Now that it has, why not use it to our advantage — just as others do?
Do we win or do we not care?
It’s that age-old question.
History tells us that when Pakistan’s great on paper, they’re poor on pitch. And when they’re poor on paper … well, that doesn’t happen often. On paper, they’re always pretty decent. Results wise, they exceed expectations when there are none. Send them onto the field, don’t look, don’t care, don’t hype ‘em up — that’s when you get the best return on your investment.
That said, this Champions Trophy is happening in Pakistan where there will be home fans, lots of media attention and eyeballs on our boys who have a long history of melting under the limelight.
That does not bode well at all.
However, the Champions Trophy is a small-ish affair in terms of format and matches, which means that Rizwan and Co. will have to play really badly to not make it out of the four-team group. Beat Bangladesh, nick one of the two matches against India and New Zealand, and you’re in business for the final four.
From that point on, you never know what might happen. The team is, after all, capable of springing surprises, two clear examples of which are the Champions Trophy of 2017 and the remarkable chase of 350 odd against South Africa in Karachi, earlier this month.
Header Image: Pakistan’s cricketers gather on stage during the inauguration ceremony of renovated National Stadium in Karachi on February 11, 2025. (Photo by Asif Hassan/ AFP)
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