Amid the ceasefire wrangling, how popular is Hamas in Gaza now? | Hamas

Of the many factors that will determine the fate of the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, one of the most difficult to quantify and predict is the level of popular support for Hamas.

On Monday, Hamas threatened to delay the release of further Israeli hostages, accusing Israel of breaches of the ceasefire deal. The uncertainty, just over halfway into the ceasefire’s six-week first phase, complicates talks on the far more difficult second phase. It also jeopardises the pause in the devastating fighting and the increase in humanitarian aid for Gaza that the truce has made possible.

Some analysts believe that Hamas initially made the concessions that helped bring about the ceasefire in part because it is sensitive to public opinion among Palestinians in Gaza, and recognised that to continue the conflict could cause it lasting damage.

The same holds true during the fragile ceasefire, with Hamas keen to get credit for continued calm and and avoid blame in the event of a return to hostilities.

That Hamas still has a powerful presence in Gaza despite massive damage done in Israel’s offensive seems clear. Successive handovers of Israeli hostages have been carefully choreographed to showcase the militant group’s military power, but Hamas has also deployed hundreds of officials from the municipal authorities it still controls to clear rubble, rehabilitate clinics, reopen schools and monitor markets.

Aid workers in Gaza report that many of their pre-war contacts in the local administration are back in their posts.

“Hamas are pretty visible on the streets. Police are back on the beat and patrolling main junctions. Ministries are also reopening. It’s like the war never happened in some ways,” said one senior UN official last week.

But experts point out that the widespread presence of Hamas does not imply extensive support.

“The level of control is not a measure of popularity,” said Hugh Lovatt, a specialist in Palestinian politics at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “We have polling data over the years and, though there are always caveats, there is still a consistent historical trend and that is that support for Hamas tends to hover around the mid-30s in percentage terms.”

An unpublished survey conducted just before the ceasefire last month revealed an apparent decline in levels of support for Hamas, though it remains the most popular party in Gaza.

The new survey, carried out by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR), asked people in the territory if they supported “very extreme actions” to protect and defend Palestine.

“This was on a continuous scale and roughly 25% were above the midpoint in support of extreme violence, so a minority,” said Scott Atran, the anthropologist who oversaw the research.

When asked what would be a “realistic and acceptable” ending to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, just under half of the population said some division of territory between Israel and Palestine, either along the pre-1967 borders or those suggested by the UN in 1947, while slightly more than half preferred a dissolution of Israel, with a single Palestinian state under Islamic law the most preferred solution of all. The least preferred was a single democratic state with equal rights for Arabs and Jews.

The survey also showed that a significant proportion feel that rule by Islamic law – a key part of the ideology of Hamas – is important and that around half believe that a military solution is more likely than a diplomatic solution. For most in Gaza too, the Palestinian-Israel conflict is primarily religious rather than political, the survey suggested.

Atran said: “Hamas has only the support of a fifth of the population – a steep decline from a March 2024 PCPSR poll that showed majority support for Hamas in Gaza. In fact, the most frequent response on leadership was that no one truly represents the Palestinian people … So there is an evident leadership gap.

“Yet, the survey also indicates that Gazans – women as much as men, old and young – are willing to sacrifice for their land and sovereignty, including to fight and die, even at the cost of their own family safety and security … or the promise of a better life elsewhere.”

A significant problem for researchers is that few in Gaza are prepared to openly criticise Hamas. The movement, which seized control of Gaza violently in 2007 after winning an election, has a long history of ruthless repression of dissidents.

A poll by PCPSR released in September shows 39% in Gaza supported the attacks by Hamas into Israel in October 2023 which triggered the conflict, 32 percentage points lower than six months earlier. Hamas killed 1,200, mostly civilians, and abducted 250 in the attack, while the ensuing Israeli offensive cost the lives of more than 48,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, and devastated swaths of the territory.

“It is important to note that support for [the 2023 attack] does not necessarily mean support for Hamas and does not mean support for any killings or atrocities committed against civilians,” the PCPSR said, pointing out that up to 90% of respondents “believe that Hamas … did not commit the atrocities depicted in videos taken on that day”.

Instead, the pollsters said, support for the 2023 attack was motivated by how the attack had focused regional and global attention on Palestinian grievances.

The poll also found that 36% in Gaza chose “armed struggle” as the most effective way to end Israeli occupation and establish an independent Palestinian state, the lowest level since September 2022. Hamas was the preferred political party of 35% of respondents, down slightly.

In the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire last month, some residents expressed pride that Hamas had survived the onslaught.

“Name me one country that could withstand Israel’s war machine for 15 months,” said Salah Abu Rezik, a 58-year-old factory worker. He praised Hamas for helping to distribute aid to hungry people in Gaza during the conflict and trying to enforce a measure of security, describing Hamas as “an idea” that could not be killed.

But others voiced anger that Hamas’s attack had brought destruction to Gaza.

“We had homes and hotels and restaurants. We had a life. Today we have nothing, so what kind of a victory is this? When the war stops, Hamas must not rule Gaza alone,” said Ameen, 30, a Gaza City civil engineer, who was living in Khan Younis.

To prevent such views spreading further, Hamas will need to divert blame if the ceasefire collapses.

One accusation made by Hamas on Monday was that Israel was deliberately hindering the entry of stipulated amounts of aid, such as 60,000 mobile houses and 200,000 tents, as well as heavy machinery to remove rubble, and fuel. Help with the humanitarian crisis and reconstruction is a priority for most in Gaza. Israel denies the charge.

Lovatt said successive polls among Palestinians showed that “there would always be space for a conservative, Islamist-leaning party” in Gaza and the occupied West Bank too.

“So even if you get rid of Hamas or it moderates further then there is potentially a segment of this Islamist support base which will look for a new political home,” he said.

“If you exile or kill the leadership, you are not addressing the challenge of this limited if substantial conservative Islamist base. If you want a credible political track you need to integrate that constituency.”