CFP National Championship – Ohio State-Notre Dame scouting report

ATLANTA — From Hollywood to classic literature to high-stakes football, there has long been a truism that tension drives narratives.

Notre Dame enters the College Football Playoff National Championship game against Ohio State as a prohibitive underdog, as the Buckeyes are favored by 8.5 points after finding a groove in the postseason. And though Xs-and-Os analysis of a championship game typically hinges on split opinions and compelling matchups, Monday’s game looms more as a search for tension.

The 10 coaches and NFL scouts/executives whom ESPN interviewed for this breakdown all picked Ohio State to win the national title. Many of them expect the Buckeyes to win handily because they hold a clear talent advantage.

Notre Dame’s run through the CFP has been fueled by opportunistic special teams, a ferocious defense that is tied for the FBS lead in defensive touchdowns (six) and an offense that has adjusted well and mustered enough success to advance. One veteran NFL scout summed up the Irish this way: “They are like a basketball team on one of those magical NCAA tournament runs right now.”

Will that run continue? No one in our unscientific poll was willing to pick the upset. “I can’t see Ohio State losing, unless Ohio State beats themselves,” said an assistant coach who has studied both teams. “If Ohio State goes out there and stays steady, doing what they do, and doesn’t turn the ball over, they should beat them pretty handily.”

So what are the potential tension points for Notre Dame? We looked at the matchup through the prism of what Notre Dame will need to do to keep the game close and potentially pull an upset.

Avoid the nuclear option

Notre Dame should borrow from the game plan that Michigan and Texas successfully used against the Buckeyes — limit the touches of star freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

“Ohio State has the one nuclear weapon on the field Monday night,” an opposing assistant coach said. “Anytime there’s a guy like No. 4 out there, the amount of extra energy put into the game plan to prepare for him is unique. It pulls away from other things.”

Smith is coming off the least-productive game of his career, finishing with one catch for 3 yards on just three targets against Texas. (He had 13 catches on 17 targets in the first two CFP games combined.) According to ESPN Research, Smith ran 15 routes against Texas when there was at least one deep safety.

Texas potentially gave Notre Dame a blueprint for managing Smith, as the Longhorns had a two-high safety look 56% of snaps and played zone defense 75% of snaps. All that attention paid to Smith meant a productive day for teammate Carnell Tate, who had the second-most catches of his career — seven — against Texas. He typically lines up opposite Smith.

Ohio State’s other star wide receiver, Emeka Egbuka, is a projected top-50 pick in the NFL draft and one of the most productive wide receivers in school history. And to opposing coaches, he’s not in the same sphere as Smith in terms of being a threat.

“That kid is a great player,” an opposing defensive coach said of Egbuka. “But we’re being risk averse. [Smith] is terrifying and the other receiver is a little scary and a fine player and polished player and runs good routes. I pick that battle over [Smith].”

Notre Dame’s big decision

No team in the FBS played more man-to-man coverage than Notre Dame this season, per ESPN Research, as the Irish played man on 57% of dropbacks. Meanwhile, Ohio State has seen man coverage on only 25% of Will Howard‘s dropbacks this season.

Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman and defensive coordinator Al Golden have a fascinating decision: Do they go away from the primary defense that brought them here or do they dare Ohio State and Smith to exploit them in man coverage?

For defensive coaches, this is a compelling conundrum. Notre Dame publicly tipped its hand a bit heading into the game, and it brought a tension point. Irish star freshman corner Leonard Moore, one of the most talented players who’ll be on the field Monday night, told media in South Bend, Indiana, “We’re not going to change who we are.”

This clearly caught Smith’s attention and he reposted the video of Moore’s comment on TikTok.

Smith memorably told ESPN’s Rece Davis during the celebration after the CFP quarterfinal win over Oregon that he didn’t think anyone could guard him — and he had dared Oregon to cover him in man defense heading into the game. He doubled down at media day Saturday, predicting that he’ll “put on a show” if the Irish play man defense against him.

The challenge of playing man against Ohio State

One coach whose team doesn’t play man frequently told ESPN they practically eliminated man-to-man defense against Ohio State. When they did play it — just a handful of times — they waited to make the call until they saw where everyone was aligned and if they were OK with the matchups. It was mostly in short-yardage situations.

That coach noticed that as the season wore on, Ohio State moved Smith around more. “That’s something we were scared of,” the coach said. “When you call man against a player that talented and you don’t know where he’s going to be — and all of a sudden, he’s in the slot matched up against a safety.

“How much man Notre Dame plays is going to be huge in this game. It doesn’t have to be a deep-ball throw where he can hurt you. He can just run past you, jump up and catch the ball.”

Smith has backed up his bravado against man coverage, hauling in four receptions on five targets on deep passes against man this season, per ESPN Research. That includes two against Oregon, one in each game.

Will the Fighting Irish play the defense that has suited them best all season?

Ohio State receivers coach Brian Hartline suggested both teams will play to the strengths that have gotten them this far. “What they do, they do very, very well. So for them to change up what they do [would] kind of be silly,” he said. “They’re really, really good players, great players on the outside. And we’re really great players on the outside too. Really, it’s what you want in a game of this magnitude.”

Can Notre Dame force Will Howard into mistakes?

In Ohio State’s losses this year — and even in some close victories — quarterback Will Howard has made punitive mistakes. Be it the two interceptions against Michigan, the late slide in the regular-season loss to Oregon or the fumble and pick-six in the win at Penn State, he has shown he can be prone to game-changing errors.

In his career, Howard has thrown 35 interceptions and five pick-sixes.

But none of those interceptions has come against man coverage. Howard has thrown nine touchdowns and zero interceptions against man coverage. All 10 of Howard’s interceptions this season have been when facing zone coverage, per ESPN Research.

“I had a healthy respect for Will Howard playing against him,” a different opposing coach said. “But it’s not above him to make an error. He’s trickable. He’s at his best when he’s making quick decisions and they are avoiding negative situations.

“He’s very good at sitting in the pocket and identifying a weakness. He didn’t panic. He’ll pull the ball and take a check. You need to try to confuse him and hit him as much as possible.”

Can Notre Dame get another special delivery?

Notre Dame’s six blocked kicks are tied for the most in the FBS. Notre Dame has successfully executed three fake kicks, including two against Georgia Tech.

When coaches and scouts are asked about Notre Dame making up for the talent gap, they quickly point to special teams.

“I would say that Notre Dame has a big edge in special teams in terms of aggression and creativity,” a special teams coach who has studied both teams’ units said. “I think a lot of that, in my gut, stems from Marcus Freeman. He’s going to take risks, fake punts and field goals. They’ve been way more aggressive this year, and it forces the opponents to be more passive in their units as they are concerned about those things.

“The Notre Dame punt block is super aggressive and they use some of the best players in the program on those units. And if you look at the kick return in the Georgia game [Jayden Harrison‘s 98-yard touchdown], they obviously have guys who can make plays.”

Another coach who faced Notre Dame this year added: “Marcus will try a fake or something unique on special teams. If I could bet on it, I would. I’d put the farm on it.”

The special teams coach also pondered if Ohio State’s Caleb Downs could be a factor. In the Buckeyes’ win over Indiana, he returned a punt 79 yards for a touchdown for the game’s biggest play. “Downs is a problem if he gets the ball in his hands,” the coach said.

How big is the talent gap?

This is a compelling question, as the top prospect on each team for this year’s NFL draft — Notre Dame corner Benjamin Morrison and Ohio State tackle Josh Simmons — is injured.

One NFL general manager told ESPN it’s unlikely anyone on the field Monday night will be taken in the top 20 picks of this year’s draft. (There’s plenty of younger talent that profiles as top-20 picks, including Downs and Smith.)

Ohio State has a bigger cluster of players on the next tier, with an expected run of Buckeyes taken from No. 25 to 75. Using Mel Kiper Jr.’s rankings, Ohio State has 10 draft-eligible players who’ll play Monday who are in the top 10 of Kiper’s position rankings. (That doesn’t include Simmons or center Seth McLaughlin, who are out for the year.)

Those 10 Buckeyes, with Kiper’s position rankings, are:

(The general manager said few have helped themselves more in the CFP than Sawyer, who has seven deflected passes, 4.5 sacks and a game-sealing scoop-and-score against Texas.)

By comparison, Notre Dame has only two available players who are expected to head to the draft and are ranked by Kiper: tight end Mitchell Evans (7) and safety Xavier Watts (5). (Riley Leonard‘s strong play late in the season has scouts considering him a mid-round pick, an uptick from when he struggled early in the season.)

“I just think Ohio State has too much talent and they’re playing well,” the general manager said. “Notre Dame is well-coached and they had no reason being in the Penn State game after the first half last week. But they found a way to fight.

“I just think [Leonard] will have a tough time against the pass rush, and they’ve been bleeding out with injuries.”

Notre Dame’s defense: Sum is better than the parts

That’s the highest compliment an opposing coach gave to Notre Dame’s defense. The Irish aren’t big up front, and they lost their most productive front-seven player when lineman Rylie Mills injured his knee against Indiana and was out for the remainder of the season.

Ohio State’s offensive linemen have banded together and played well during the playoff, with Luke Montgomery emerging as an asset at guard after making his first career start against Texas. Ohio State has used 24 offensive line combinations this season.

Ohio State’s playcalling — including a heavy dose of misdirection and pre-snap movement — has kept opposing defenses off-balance and given its offensive line time to jell.

A coach who has studied both teams predicted Ohio State should move the ball up front, despite its two key injuries and a season of shuffling on the offensive line.

“I would say that Notre Dame’s front is small,” the coach said. “They are fast and quick and use their speed to cause havoc. Ohio State will run outside zone and get them moving. Notre Dame’s linebackers are just average guys that play hard. They are going to try and run. It’s still a mismatch.”

Notre Dame’s offense: Adequate, but not explosive

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How can Riley Leonard hurt Ohio State?

Desmond Howard joins “SportsCenter” to break down whether Riley Leonard’s run game or pass game will be more important to Notre Dame’s success vs. OSU Monday night.

The return of Beaux Collins, the Irish’s No. 2 receiver, from a calf strain should be helpful. He was limited to seven snaps in the semifinal against Penn State. The return to form of tailback Jeremiyah Love, who told ESPN he was just 75% to 80% healthy against Penn State, will also be an asset. “Going into that game,” Love said, “I didn’t feel very good, but I felt good enough to go.”

Love had just one target in the passing game, compared with five for reserve back Aneyas Williams. With Love at or close to top speed, look for him to be more of a factor in the passing game. “I’m about 90%, 95%,” he said. “I got all my speed, my agility. It’s just a matter of mentally going out there and believing that I can do it myself.”

Notre Dame’s pass game has been limited, as Leonard hasn’t thrown for more than 229 yards in a game this season. That pass offense will be under duress, as Ohio State has had success applying pressure during the CFP rushing only four defenders.

The quarterback run game has been a Notre Dame staple during the playoff, as the Irish called nine designed runs for Leonard against Georgia and a season-high 12 designed quarterback runs against Penn State. There’s a risk-reward in terms of health with every quarterback carry, but coaches tend to be more aggressive with running quarterbacks late in the season because there are no games left to preserve them for.

Those runs often move the chains, and there will be another heavy load of them Monday. It also highlights Notre Dame’s lack of downfield threats in the pass game and an offense that lacks quick-strike capability.

“The lack of explosiveness for Notre Dame on offense is the biggest mismatch,” an NFL scout said. “Notre Dame is tough, physical and they play really good defense. They’re going to have to keep up with Ohio State offensively, and I don’t see them slowing them down enough and making enough plays to win.”