And Nigel Farage, the godfather of Brexit, is waiting eagerly to take over.
A poll from YouGov on Tuesday put Farage’s Reform UK ahead of Labour, in first place nationally for the first time. Polling this far out from the next election is easy to write off as meaningless. But while today’s numbers can’t predict what will happen in 2029, it would be a mistake to dismiss the risks for Labour.
Farage looms large
With Trump rewriting the rules of the world economy, a vote for his friend Farage might be perfectly logical. Starmer says he also wants a trade deal with the U.S. but no party leader can claim to be closer to Trump or more committed to Brexit than Farage.
Ahead of last year’s election, Labour deliberately chose not to fight Farage. But Starmer’s most senior allies do now see the danger. They know their task is not just to deliver economic growth that resonates in the lives of swing voters, but also to make sure Labour gets the credit.
They reckon they’re likely to be fighting the populist right in some form at the next election, whether that’s primarily Kemi Badenoch’s Tories, or Farage’s Reform, or some merged version of the two. The key to countering that threat, Starmer’s team believes, is what they call “delivery.”
The lesson Starmer needs to remember, as he contemplates his EU reset over the next few months, is a political one, however much he wants improved trade terms to boost growth: If you look like you’re betraying the voters who put you in power, like their counterparts in America, they might punish you by backing a hard-right populist next time.
And if Trump or his buddy Elon Musk have a choice over whether to endorse the Labour leader or a true believer like Farage, in this age when national boundaries no longer constrain election campaigns, there’s only likely to be one winner.
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