For nearly 20 years, there has been talk of London Heathrow Airport (LHR) getting a third runway. It’s recommended by the government. Then it’s approved. Then it’s blocked by a court. Then it’s approved again. Then it’s blocked again.
Well, there’s now a new development, as there’s a renewed push for Heathrow to get a third runway. Will it actually happen, though? Well…
The debate over a third runway at Heathrow Airport
Heathrow is one of the world’s biggest airports, and it served nearly 84 million passengers in 2024. The catch is that the airport is heavily capacity constrained, as it only has two runways. Currently the airport allows up to 480,000 aircraft movements per year.
In order to operate from the airport, airlines need slots, and those slots are incredibly valuable. Famously, in 2016, Oman Air paid a record $75 million for a pair of slots at the airport, to be able to fly there.
The only practical way Heathrow can significantly expand capacity is with the construction of a third runway. As you’d expect, this is controversial.
The argument in favor of a third runway is pretty simple — it would help fuel economic growth, by allowing more nonstop service between Heathrow and other destinations. Air connectivity fuels economic growth. Period. However, the arguments against it are numerous:
- It would be costly, and once construction starts, it would take at least a decade to complete
- Roughly 1,000 homes near the airport would need to be demolished, to make room for the airport
- Another runway won’t help the UK with its climate targets, since it will lead to increased emissions
- The London area has six different airports, and some have significant capacity available, so in many ways this is just about continuing to build a mega hub
While it was a quiet several years when it came to the possibility of a third runway at Heathrow, this is now being considered more seriously again. Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the UK’s finance minister, has today backed a third runway at Heathrow.
She has stated that it could create 100,000 jobs, and that “a third runway is badly needed,” and that the government “cannot duck the decision any longer.” As she went on to explain:
“I can confirm today that this government supports a third runway at Heathrow and is inviting proposals to be brought forward by the summer. We will then take forward a full assessment through the airport national policy statement. This will ensure that the project is value for money and our clear expectation is that any associated service transport costs will be financed through private funding. It will ensure that a third runway is delivered in line with our legal, environmental and climate objectives.”
Interestingly, she has criticized previous governments for backing the third runway proposal without actually making progress, so she’s really setting herself up for a bit of a test here, by seeing if she can do better. Of course let me emphasize that any project like this would take at least a decade, so this wouldn’t open before 2035 at the very earliest.
My take on the prospect of a third runway at Heathrow
Should Heathrow have a third runway? I mean, yes, personally I think this seems like a reasonable proposal, and ultimately it’s important for a major market to have a large, competitive airport, with lots of nonstop connectivity.
That being said, do I think this will actually come to fruition? I think it’s unlikely, and that we’re going to see more of the same — proposals, recommendations, approvals, blocking by a court, etc.
Why? Well, a couple of reasons. First of all, infrastructure investments just aren’t very sexy for politicians. People are only in elected office for so long, and if you put a lot of effort into something that takes a decade or more to complete, you don’t really get political brownie points for that, in the same way as something that has more instant gratification.
The other issue is just all the parties that are at odds with one another, and how often public sentiment shifts based on who’s in office. The third runway is opposed by many politicians, environmentalists, those living near the airport, and even many airline executives. For example, since British Airways is the single biggest airline at Heathrow, the airline opposes this expansion, since it would increase competition.
Even if we see a proposal now, and then a tentative approval, you know there’s going to be endless litigation, and a judge somewhere along the way who blocks something. Then if there’s a change in political vibes, the project will be scrapped as fast as it started. At least that’s my take…
Bottom line
There’s once again talk of Heathrow Airport getting a third runway, as the current government has expressed strong support for the concept. This is a debate that has been going on for nearly 20 years, so this is hardly novel. In the past we’ve seen this concept proposed and even approved, only to then be blocked by courts.
Only time will tell if things go differently this time. I do think a third runway for Heathrow makes sense, though I also think that actually seeing this all the way through is an uphill battle.
What do you make of the prospects of Heathrow getting a third runway?
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