Moderate Liberals losing ground as hard-right faction looms large in Senate battle | Australian politics

The Liberal party’s moderate wing is set to lose more influence in federal parliament with an Alex Antic-backed candidate tipped to take the Senate seat once held by Simon Birmingham.

Birmingham, who was elected in 2007 and resigned on Tuesday, led the federal party’s moderate faction and was one of the few remaining senior Liberals in the faction after losses in the 2022 federal election, including inner city MPs Jason Falinski and Tim Wilson.

With the backing of the hard-right Antic faction, Leah Blyth, the party’s state president, is most likely to take Birmingham’s former seat in the upper house after the vote takes place on Friday evening, Liberal sources told Guardian Australia under the condition of anonymity, due to party rules.

Blyth will be challenged by moderate candidate, Sam Hooper, a lawyer and former staffer to the now state opposition leader Vincent Tarzia, as well as the unaligned Adelaide city councillor Henry Davis.

Liberal sources said Blyth would likely emerge the clear winner with Antic’s backing but suggested Hooper could win over some of the remaining moderate and centrist delegates in the state.

Davis told Guardian Australia in December his win was unlikely without the support of Antic’s votes.

Moderate Liberals say there’s a vacuum of leadership and organisation for the wet faction and Hooper’s attempt to wrest the seat over Blyth was an uphill battle against the dominance of the hard-right.

A reported push to get religious conservatives signed up to the party has been attributed to Antic’s rise as a factional heavyweight in South Australia.

Despite being a backbencher, known for his “anti-woke”, anti-vaccine mandate and anti-transgender stance, the senator could have the influence to shape the party’s ideological focus in South Australia.

Blyth, a former president of the South Australian Liberal’s women’s council, was placed fourth in 2024’s Senate ticket preselection – an unwinnable position – after Antic had used his voting bloc to overtake Anne Ruston for the top spot.

Senator David Fawcett, a conservative faction leader in South Australia, placed third.

In response to criticism about his move to dump senior female shadow minister Ruston from the top spot, Antic told The Australian he did not believe voters would punish the party.

“The ‘gender card’ is nothing but a grievance narrative, constructed by the activist media and a disgruntled political class,” Antic told the newspaper in March. “We need the best person for the job regardless of race, gender or sexuality.”

In April 2023, under Blyth’s women’s council presidency, the rightwing dominated council passed a series of motions opposing the South Australian parliament’s introduction of gender-neutral pronouns as well as offering support to British activist Kellie-Jay Keen’s group, Let Women Speak.

Guardian Australia asked Antic why he was backing Blyth but he declined to engage.

“I do not bother wasting my time speaking to the Guardian,” he said.