What do Hamas delay and Trump threat mean for Gaza ceasefire deal? | Israel-Gaza war

What did Trump say?

“If they’re not here, all hell is going to break out,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday night. He added of the ceasefire: “Cancel it, and all bets are off.”

Trump said the final decision would be up to Israel, saying: “I’m speaking for myself. Israel can override it.” When asked if the US would join in a response to Hamas if hostages weren’t freed, Trump said: “Hamas will find out what I mean.”

The president also said he might withhold aid to Jordan and Egypt if those countries did not take refugees from Gaza.

The president implied he meant all the remaining hostages in Gaza, although it was not completely clear. Another 16, including eight bodies, are due to be released as part of the first six-week phase of the ceasefire. In total there are 76 captives still held in the strip.

The other living hostages were due to be released in the second phase, due to begin in early March and as yet of undetermined duration.

Why did Hamas say it was delaying this week’s releases?

The Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida cited alleged Israeli violations of the ceasefire deal, including delaying the return of Palestinians to northern Gaza, blocking the arrival of aid and attacking civilians. He said there would be no more hostage releases until Israel “complies and compensates for the past weeks”. Israel denies the Hamas allegations. 

Hamas did not directly mention Trump’s Gaza takeover plan, but the US’s changed position appears to be central to the group’s decision. Hamas no longer believes Washington’s guarantees for the ceasefire will hold and it does not think Israel is serious about implementing the plan, Reuters reported.

The group said it “intentionally made this announcement five days before the scheduled prisoner handover, allowing mediators ample time to pressure [Israel] towards fulfilling its obligations”.

On Tuesday, in response to Trump’s latest comments, a senior Hamas official, Sami Abu Zuhri, said: “The language of threats has no value and only complicates matters.”

How has Israel responded?

The Israeli security cabinet was meeting on Tuesday morning to discuss negotiations on the second phase of the deal. The army has cancelled all leave for soldiers in the Gaza division, the Kan news outlet reported, in a sign that Israeli authorities are preparing for the resumption of war.

In Tel Aviv, protesters blocked streets on Monday night demanding the return of all hostages, as some relatives accused the government of sabotaging the deal. The demonstrations continued on Tuesday as families and activists blocked the main Jerusalem-Tel Aviv highway. 

There have been worries about Israel’s willingness to transition from phase one to phase two since the deal was agreed: the far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich has said he will quit Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition if the war does not restart after the first phase, which could force the prime minister to choose between his government and the deal.

What is supposed to happen under the ceasefire agreement?

The next exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners and detainees had been set for this Saturday and would have been the sixth under the six-week-long first stage of the ceasefire deal.

Hostage-detainee swaps are due to continue on a weekly basis until 2 March. In the second stage, all remaining living hostages should be released and Israel should completely withdraw from Gaza, in effect ending the war.  

Talks on the second stage were supposed to begin last week but Netanyahu has only authorised the Israeli team to discuss technical issues related to the first stage.  Bridging proposals extending phase one of the deal are another option. 

The third phase is supposed to address the exchange of bodies of deceased hostages and Hamas members, and a reconstruction plan for Gaza would be launched. Future governance plans remain hazy.