An end to SNAP? Why it may happen in a couple of years in some states

An end to SNAP? Why it may happen in a couple of years in some states

Medora Lee, USA TODAY

Wed, December 3, 2025 at 10:12 AM UTC

5 min read

Tens of millions of Americans are in danger of losing their Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, benefits again if a cost-sharing law goes into effect as planned in the government's fiscal year 2028, which begins October 2027, experts said.

Most people know about the new SNAP work requirements in the mega tax and spending package passed on July 4, but the seismic shift is the cost-sharing provision, experts say.

The federal government has always fully funded SNAP benefits, but states must fund a portion of the benefits starting in FY28, which runs from October 2027 to October 2028, based on their payment error rates. Error rates measure how accurately state agencies determine eligibility and benefit amounts for participants and include both overpayments and underpayments to households.

Though payments aren’t required until FY28, error rates in FY25 and FY26 determine how much states will have to contribute to SNAP. While error rates for FY25 aren’t out yet, the latest data suggest most states would likely owe hundreds of millions of dollars they don’t have.

That will “almost certainly lead some states to cut SNAP participation substantially and is likely to lead other states to end their participation in the program entirely,” said Lauren Bauer, fellow at nonprofit policy research group Brookings Institution.

Food items at a Food Bank of the Rockies distribution site in Aurora, Colorado, including milk, pasta and frozen blueberries.

Volunteers at Food Bank of the Rockies distribution site in Aurora, Colorado, load food into a waiting car on Nov. 1, 2025, following the halt of SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans.

Volunteers at Food Bank of the Rockies distribution site in Aurora, Colorado, pause for prayer before loading food into waiting cars on Nov. 1, 2025, following the halt of SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans.

Former trucker Doug Wheeler, 56, waits to collect food at a Food Bank of the Rockies distribution site in Aurora, Colorado, on Nov. 1, 2025, following the halt of SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans. Wheeler is among those whose benefits have been halted.

A volunteer distributes food at a Food Bank of the Rockies distribution site in Aurora, Colorado, on Nov. 1, 2025, following the halt of SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans.

Volunteers distribute food at a Food Bank of the Rockies distribution site in Aurora, Colorado, on Nov. 1, 2025, following the halt of SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans.

A volunteer at a Food Bank of the Rockies distribution site in Aurora, Colorado, on Nov. 1, 2025, takes a picture of a heart-shaped potato before distributing food to people following the halt of SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans.

Thomas Booth, the site coordinator for Food Bank of the Rockies distribution site, and an elder with the Restoration Christian Fellowship, which hosts the distribution, helps hand out food to people on Nov. 1, 2025, following the halt of SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans.

Free food as SNAP benefits halted

Food items at a Food Bank of the Rockies distribution site in Aurora, Colorado, including milk, pasta and frozen blueberries.

How does the new cost-sharing work?

Cost-sharing rises with higher error rates except for states with error rates above 13.32%. They’re exempt from the requirement to pay for any portion of SNAP benefits for up to two additional years.

The rates for everyone else are as follows:

If less than 6%, states won’t have to pay any portion of SNAP benefits.
If 6% to less than 8%, states pay 5%.
If 8% to less than 10%, states pay 10%
If 10% to less than 15%, states pay 15%

With SNAP food assistance benefits suspended during the government shutdown, food is loaded into a car trunk during a food distribution sponsored by Fulfill for 1000 people in the parking lot at ShoreTown Ballpark in Lakewood late Wednesday afternoon November 12, 2025.

What does this mean for Americans?

Different states will react differently to the new legislation, the Congressional Budget Office said in August.

“Some states will maintain current benefits and eligibility; others will modify benefits or eligibility or leave the program altogether,” if they can’t get their error rates down or afford to shoulder their share of SNAP benefits, it said.

Twenty-three governors signed a letter to congressional leadership in June, saying they might have to end their SNAP programs and explaining how this policy change would harm their constituents. About 42 million Americans, or more than 12% of the population, receive an average of $6 per day in SNAP benefits. Roughly 40% of beneficiaries are children.

During the record-long, 43-day government shutdown that began Oct. 1, many Americans discovered how hard it was to afford food after missing only one month of benefits. Losing SNAP altogether would be disastrous, analysts said.

The SNAP fallout could touch non-SNAP recipients, too, they said.

States could “make significant cuts elsewhere in their budget to make room for more state spending on SNAP or raise taxes or revenue by other means to be able to afford to remain in the program,” Bauer explained.

Ongoing high error rates could also prompt the Department of Agriculture (USDA) to suspend the program in a state, some experts said.

USDA “can deem the state out of compliance and withhold federal funds or disallow benefits, effectively preventing SNAP benefits from being issued unless the state both complies with program rules and pays its required share,” said Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, which analyzes major legislation.

“In other words, while USDA cannot 'cancel SNAP' as a legal program per se, persistent noncompliance, including failure to pay the 15% match when required, could lead to a cutoff of federal SNAP funding,” he said. That “would feel to households like SNAP being shut down until the state fixes the problem.”

Can states lower their error rates?

The National Governors Association this year discussed ways to curtail payment error rates with minimal delivery disruption for beneficiaries. Suggestions included pinpointing where errors are generated, using technology like AI and automation to prevent errors and improving training and morale among workers.

“Two-thirds of states may have to pay $100 million for a cost-share penalty, which is leading to an intense push from states and territories” to decrease error rates, it said.

The average error rate was 10.93% in FY24, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Since 2003, only South Dakota has never had an error rate above 6%, Bauer said.

But reducing error rates won’t be easy. States will also begin paying a larger cost of administering SNAP in their states, too. Starting in FY27, or October 2026, states’ share of administrative costs will rise to 75% from 50%, leaving states with even less money to invest in lowering their error rates or paying their penalties.

Between the higher administrative share and the error rate penalty, SNAP costs will rise sharply in all states, according to the Center on Poverty and Inequality at Georgetown Law. On average, states will have to spend two to three times more of their budgets on SNAP, with a median increase of about 202%.

Does anyone win?

Savings to the federal government have the potential to be enormous, experts said.

Smetters estimated that discontinuing SNAP in just Illinois, for example, would save the federal government between $5 billion and $6 billion in annual benefit costs, plus a relatively small amount of federal administrative funding, based on the latest SNAP data.

Other than that, the new law is a “tremendously bad idea,” Bauer said. “I’m very nervous, and I want to make people more nervous,” so they pay attention to this issue. “There’s a growing concern that Congress accidentally ended the program."

The government could choose not to enforce the law, but Bauer said the administration doesn't appear open to that as it insists it's rooting out fraud. Congress would have to pass a new law to reverse the new requirements, she said.

Medora Lee is a money, markets and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at mjlee@usatoday.com and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday morning.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Millions of Americans may lose SNAP if states can't fix errors or pay

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