Ambuja Cements Q3 Preview: PAT, revenue may decline YoY as volume remains key factor

The PAT is also seen in a wide range of Rs 74 crore to Rs 1,022 crore, the estimates revealed. This translates into a decline of 6.2%-32% in the bottom. While Yes Securities has the lowest net profit estimate out of the three brokerages, Nuvama has the highest.

Brokerages expect ACL’s volumes to go up on a YoY basis while cement realisations improving QoQ on the back of higher prices.

The company’s Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) is expected to go down over Q3FY24.

The company will announce its October-December quarter earnings on Wednesday, January 29, 2025.

Here’s what brokerages recommended:

Yes Securities
Yes Securities sees a 1.3% YoY decline and a 6.7% QoQ gain in Ambuja’s net sales at Rs 8,022 crore. The PAT is expected to fall 32% on a YoY basis while rising by 30% on a QoQ basis to Rs 74.4 crore.

The EBITDA is seen at Rs 130 crore, which could fall 25% over Q3FY24 while rising by 17% over Q2FY25. The EBITDA/t is pegged at Rs 86 crore which is likely to fall 29% YoY while rising 10% on a sequential basis.Volume is expected to rise on a YoY and QoQ basis to 15.05 MT, which is a 6% growth over Q3FY24 and Q2FY25.

Yes has a ‘Sell’ call on Ambuja shares for a price target of Rs 471.

“On a consolidated basis, we don’t see any major contribution to volume from Ambuja’s standalone capacity. We don’t expect any significant CUR increase in Sanghi as well as Penna. Ambuja’s (including Sanghi and Penna) major installed capacity are in west south where prices/demand were weak in 3Q. However, north prices/demand were relatively better,” Yes said.

Nuvama

ACL’s revenue is pegged at Rs 9,076 crore, which could go up by 11.7% YoY and 20.8% QoQ. The net profit is expected to decline YoY by 6.2% to 1,022 crore while jumping by 116% on a sequential basis.

The Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) is estimated at Rs 1,640 crore which could drop by 5.3% YoY while rising by 48% on a QoQ basis.

“Volumes are likely to rise 20% YoY while the cement realisations could improve 2% QoQ. Overall, EBITDA/t may fall to Rs 976 versus Rs 1,228 in the same quarter of the previous year due to weak realisations,” Nuvama said.

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Axis Securities

Axis Securities expects ACL’s revenue to grow 4% YoY and 12% QoQ to Rs 8,415 crore on the back of higher volume as the demand improved and company gained in market share. The PAT is seen at Rs 605, which could fall by 26% YoY but rise 33% QoQ.

Likewise the EBITDA may fall 19% YoY to Rs 1,399 crore while gaining by 26% QoQ. The EBITDA margin is seen around 16.6% which could be a 470 bps decline over Q3FY24 while a 190 bps uptick over Q2FY25 due to volume and price increases.

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“Gross margin to be lower YoY but higher QoQ. EBITDA/tonne to be lower on YoY but higher QoQ as volume and price improves QoQ,” this brokerage said.

The realisation is expected to be lower YoY but higher QoQ as cement prices improved. The cost/tonne is seen to remain flattish YoY.

Ambuja remains among its top sectoral plays.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)