Child poverty predicted to rise in most of UK except Scotland | Poverty

Child poverty is on course to increase in most of the UK by the end of this parliament, with only Scotland bucking the trend, according to analysis by a poverty charity.

Although Labour’s election manifesto committed it to an “ambitious strategy” to reduce child poverty, only in Scotland will rates have fallen by 2029 under current economic projections, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) said.

Scotland’s relative success – its child poverty rates are projected to be 10 percentage points lower than England’s by 2029 – is attributed by JRF to Holyrood’s more generous child benefits and its plans to scrap the two-child benefit limit.

JRF argues that the government will fail to shift the dial on child poverty if it relies on rising economic growth alone to boost low-income family finances, and that it must drive up living standards through changes to the benefits system.

“Any credible child poverty strategy must include policies that rebuild the tattered social security system,” said the JRF chief executive, Paul Kissack. “The wellbeing of millions of children depends on that. And so do the government’s wider ambitions for improved living standards and opportunity.”

The government is due to publish a 10-year poverty strategy in the summer. There is concern among campaigners that it may shy away on cost grounds from measures such as scrapping the two-child limit. It plans cuts to incapacity benefits, a policy that experts say is likely to drive up child poverty.

The JRF analysis, based on Office for Budget Responsibility growth forecasts, estimates that by 2029 relative child poverty rates will increase to 31.5% in England, 34.4% in Wales and 26.2% in Northern Ireland. In Scotland they are predicted to fall two percentage points to 21.8%.

Scottish welfare policy has significantly diverged from that of the rest of the UK in recent years, with the SNP government using devolved powers to mitigate Westminster austerity measures such as the bedroom tax while introducing its own benefits including a new carer support payment and the Scottish child payment.

The Scottish child payment to low-income families, introduced by the Scottish National party in 2021, is seen by campaigners as a child poverty gamechanger. It is worth £26.70 a week and 330,000 young people are eligible.

The Scottish government took opponents by surprise when it unveiled plans to scrap the two-child benefit cap in its December draft budget. The UK Labour government has repeatedly resisted pressure to abolish the policy, which was brought in under the previous Conservative administration.

Scrapping the two-child limit in Scotland by April 2026 will cost £155m in the first year and help 43,000 children, according to an independent assessment. Scottish Labour said it would back the budget if the Scottish government accelerated plans to scrap the cap.

Scotland’s social justice secretary, Shirley-Anne Somerville, called the JRF report a wake-up call for the UK government. “[It] shows them exactly what they need to do to support our efforts to end child poverty – including abolishing the two-child limit and delivering progress toward an essentials guarantee, which the Scottish government has repeatedly called on them to do,” she said.

A UK government spokesperson said: “No child should be in poverty – that’s why our ministerial taskforce is exploring all levers available across government to give children across the United Kingdom the best start in life, while our plan for change will raise living standards across the country.

“As we fix the foundations of the economy, we’re increasing the living wage, uprating benefits and supporting 700,000 of the poorest families with children by introducing a fair repayment rate on universal credit deductions to help low-income families and make everyone better off.”