Coalition nuclear plan hides a 2bn tonne ‘carbon bomb’ that puts net zero by 2050 out of reach, new analysis shows | Nuclear power

Peter Dutton’s nuclear energy policy would add huge amounts of extra climate pollution to the atmosphere and make it “virtually impossible” for Australia to reach net zero by 2050, according to new analysis by a government agency.

The Climate Change Authority found the Coalition’s proposal to slow the rollout of renewable energy, keep ageing coal-fired power plants running until after 2040 and build taxpayer-funded nuclear reactors on seven sites would increase total carbon dioxide emissions by more than 2bn tonnes.

The authority’s chair, Matt Kean, said this would be equivalent to adding “two Beetaloo basins” worth of emissions to the atmosphere – a reference to the vast Northern Territory gas basin earmarked for development, which has been described as a potential “carbon bomb”.

“Any government planning to use nuclear power would have to explain how they would meet net zero by 2050,” Kean told Guardian Australia. “Are they planning to bury these 2bn tonnes of carbon pollution, eliminate agriculture or wave some sort of magic wand?

“The reality here is this is a 2bn tonne nuclear carbon bomb that will be the equivalent of two Beetaloo basins of emissions added to the atmosphere. Based on the authority’s analysis, what’s clear is that under the Coalition’s nuclear plan it will be virtually impossible to meet their own commitment of net zero by 2050.”

Kean – a former New South Wales Liberal treasurer and energy minister – said the world had just had its hottest year on record for the second year running, January 2025 had maintained that level of heat, and in future decades this year would “seem relatively cool” if emissions were not rapidly cut “here and elsewhere”.

He said the authority’s analysis was likely to be an underestimate of the total extra pollution that would ultimately result under the Coalition’s proposal, given its optimistic assumptions about how quickly a nuclear industry could be established and generators built.

He said the Coalition’s best-case scenario assumed nuclear generators could be built in a timeframe that “no advanced economy” had been able to achieve, pointing to long delays and cost overruns in France and the US, countries that already had “deep experience in nuclear energy”.

Kean said the authority was a science-based organisation and its chartered role included examining climate policies and reporting to the Australian people on the impact of climate policies.

“It’s up to the Coalition now to explain to the Australian people how their proposal is going to stack up,” he said.

Labor has a target to reach 82% renewables in the electricity grid by 2030, up from the current level of nearly 45%. The authority said that under the Coalition’s plan there would not be 82% of electricity from zero emissions technology – renewables and nuclear – until 2042.

The authority calculated that keeping coal-fired power plants working for longer, as the Coalition proposes, would lead to an extra 1bn tonnes of CO₂ by 2050 compared with Labor’s preferred pathway. The slower rollout of renewable energy – assumed in Frontier Economics modelling endorsed by the Coalition – would add a further 1bn tonnes in other parts of the economy, including transport and large industry.

The authority’s analysis said the Coalition’s nuclear proposal would result in Australia missing its commitment to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels by almost six percentage points.

The Frontier Economics modelling assumed a first nuclear plant would be producing power by 2036. The authority’s analysis assumed there would be no delays in the Coalition’s plan, which has 13GW of nuclear capacity operating by 2049.

But many experts, including the CSIRO, have said that timeline is unrealistic, with nuclear plants unlikely to be producing electricity until the early 2040s. Nuclear plants built in western democracies are notorious for both budget and schedule blowouts.

The Guardian has approached the shadow climate change and energy minister, Ted O’Brien, for comment.

Kean is scheduled to give evidence at a Senate estimates hearing on Monday afternoon.