Key events
National Rally unlikely to support no confidence vote against France’s PM Bayrou
France’s far-right National Rally party does not intend to back a no-confidence motion in François Bayrou’s government over a budget bill he is seeking to pass without a vote, its president said Tuesday.
Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally (RN), said his party would take its final decision on Wednesday morning.
“The question is: Is it better to have a bad budget or no budget at all? We will decide tomorrow,” Bardella told CNews television.
“I think that in the period we are going through, the French people would not benefit from a new form of instability that would strongly impact the economy,” he said.
Bardella’s line echoes that of the Socialist Party, which said that as much as it disagrees with many of the proposed measures, after so many months of prolonged uncertainty a budget it is still better than no budget.
The declaration ultimately confirms that Bayrou is safe (for now).
Morning opening: Groundhog Day 2025
Jakub Krupa
What would you do if you were stuck in one place, and every day was exactly the same, and nothing that you did mattered?
EU trade ministers attending this morning’s informal meeting in Warsaw may well be asking themselves that question.
Originally it is a quote from the 1993 movie Groundhog Day about… you know what. You watched it, surely. Everyone has by now.
For EU leaders, it is also about the new challenge of figuring out who could be targeted by the US president Donald Trump’s trade policy next. Every. Single. Day.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen admitted last night that there were “clearly new challenges and growing uncertainties” with the US and waved a finger at Trump, saying the bloc would “respond firmly” if targeted “unfairly or arbitrarily” by the US.
Her principles for dealing with the US president were fairly simple: “be prepared… be very pragmatic, engage early, discuss and negotiate with necessary,” while focusing on reforming the bloc from within.
Well, good luck.
Overnight, Trump pulled back from imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico (for now?) but followed through on his promises to target China, sparking instant retaliation from Beijing.
Fortunately, EU trade ministers are meeting in Warsaw today to predict the unpredictable, figure out where we go next and how the bloc can “be prepared” for Trump. They will sort it out, right?
As the Bloomberg journalist and author Javier Blas commented on Trump’s brinkmanship style of negotiating: “So, do we do this every 30 days for the next four years?”
PS. The actual Groundhog Day was on Sunday, and Punxsutawney Phil, the hedgehog, has seen his shadow and is predicting six more weeks of wintry weather.
That’s 1444 days, and 16 hours in human terms, until 20 January 2029. At least.
It’s Tuesday, 4 February 2025, and this is Europe live. It’s Jakub Krupa here.
Good morning.
Article by:Source: Jakub Krupa
