Europe and the UK are hoping they are on the brink of assembling a credible military coalition that Donald Trump can only refuse to support at risk of appearing openly to ally with Vladimir Putin – an alliance many grassroots Republicans reject.
The plan is a long shot since it requires enough countries inside Nato to offer practical support to such a coalition of the willing, and also needs Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, to patch up his relations with Donald Trump following Friday’s Oval Office meeting.
It also requires Europe – alongside Zelenskyy – putting together the terms of a ceasefire that can be put to the US, so preventing the Trump administration sealing a deal with Russia that leaves Europe and Ukraine out in the cold.
For the moment the argument, raging in every European capital, about whether America can any longer be treated as a reliable ally – as Keir Starmer insisted it remains – will be parked since Trump’s intentions can be tested by challenging him not to leave Europe without support if a coalition of the willing enters Ukraine to police a ceasefire.
British sources insisted that more countries made promises to offer a contribution at the summit in London on Sunday, and for the first time Starmer talked in terms of the coalition enforcing a ceasefire through troops on the ground and forces in the air.
But he was reluctant to make announcements about troop contributions on behalf of countries that still need to consult domestically, so in practical terms leaving the concept of the ceasefire enforcement force not far advanced from the meeting hosted by Emmanuel Macron, the French president, in Paris a fortnight ago.
As yet the US president has refused to say he is willing to provide the US backstop Starmer has said is vital, but the UK is slowly assembling the case that history shows Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted to abide by the ceasefire.
It was this expression of distrust in the Russian president by Zelenskyy in the Oval Office last Friday that prompted the no-holds-barred row between Zelenskyy and Trump on the one hand and his vice-president, JD Vance, on the other.
Starmer, and the rest of Europe, have sided with Zelenskyy by insisting in the end Russia cannot dictate the terms of a security deal, adding any deal would need defending. The test on Trump’s intentions, if he is presented with a credible European plan, will be if he rejects all US involvement. “Europe must do the heavy lifting, but to support peace in our continent, and to succeed, this effort must have strong US backing,” Starmer said.
But Europe’s fear is that Trump has left them behind. Asked whether Trump wanted Zelenskyy to resign, his national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said: “We need a leader who can deal with us, and ultimately deal with the Russians and end this war.”
He added: “If it becomes clear that President Zelenskyy’s personal motivations or political motivations are making it more difficult to end the conflict in his country, then I think we have a real problem on our hands.”
But Starmer also threw down a challenge to Europe to move beyond its endless promises to spend more on defence and to act. An EU summit later this week will be the test of whether the bloc is willing to take defence investment outside the rules limiting fiscal debts, so releasing extra defence spending.
Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission president, has promised a comprehensive plan this week, and the signs are that the nascent governing coalition in Germany between Friedrich Merz’s CDU and the SPD will move to act urgently.
The Polish president, Donald Tusk, said the upcoming EU summit should send a clear message to Putin “that the west has no intention of capitulating before his blackmail and aggression”.
Starmer believes he has convinced Zelenskyy that the offer of US access to Ukrainian rare minerals, an agreement that fell apart in the Oval House, has to be reactivated. Peter Mandelson, the UK ambassador to Washington, described it as the only game in town since it is the only way to convince the US it has a stake in Ukraine that warrants the US providing the required security guarantees.
Article by:Source: Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor
