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The IDF has begun to withdraw from southern Lebanon on Tuesday, but it will have around three times as many troops on the defense line of the border compared to before the war.
The military will maintain five outposts within southern Lebanon near the border, each manned by a company of troops, for an indefinite period of time.
Companies often range from 100-150 soldiers, but this is just a small part of the larger forces, which likely will number several thousand, if not 10,000-15,000, depending on various circumstances.
The five outposts were not formally part of the November 27 ceasefire deal. However, Israel convinced the US that the Lebanese Army is not effective enough – at present – to keep Hezbollah from entrenching in southern Lebanon and potentially trying to attack.
Under the ceasefire terms, the Lebanese Army was supposed to take over all potential Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, confiscate Hezbollah weapons, and prevent the terror group from sending fighters back into the area.
Lebanese Armed Forces improving
The IDF said on Monday that the Lebanese Army is doing better than ever before and is surprisingly confronting Hezbollah in some instances, but its performance is still far below where it would need to be to allow the military to withdraw the rest of its forces from southern Lebanon.
IDF sources suggested that a period of two to eight months for the outposts was easily imaginable and that the military could stay there much longer if needed for security reasons.
The five outposts will be located on the Lebanese side of the border, running from west to east near: 1) Labbouneh (near Shlomi on the Israeli side); 2) Ramyeh/Jabal Blat (Shtula); 3) Blida, Bint Jbeil, and Maroun El Ras (Avivim); 4) Wadi Saluki (Margaliot); and 5) Al-Khiyam, Kfar Kila, Ayoun Valley, and Aamra (Metulla).
According to the IDF, there is hope that despite threats from Hezbollah to treat the five outposts as a continued occupation and basis for conflict, they have been limited enough to reduce friction with the broader Lebanese public.
Further, the IDF said it would be crucial to maintain an aggressive posture toward attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon any time it tries to sneak forces into southern Lebanon or smuggle powerful weapons into any part of Lebanese territory.
Military sources acknowledged that it would not be possible to completely prevent every single Hezbollah fighter from returning to southern Lebanon since many of them can return under the guise of being civilian villagers who live there.
However, the IDF said it had enhanced its intelligence collection capabilities to try to better distinguish between legitimate innocent Lebanese villagers and Hezbollah fighters and would work hard on the issue.
In addition, the IDF said that while it would not rely solely on the Lebanese Army and American advisers helping that army, the mechanism for reporting Hezbollah violations, with direct US oversight, was often working.
Also, the IDF said that since the September 30 invasion, it had succeeded in mostly clearing the five-to-six-kilometer area of southern Lebanon near the border of Hezbollah weapons.
The IDF said it hoped many northern residents would return to their homes as of March 2, given improvements for defending them as well as progress in some areas in rebuilding infrastructure and houses destroyed by around 14 months of Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks.
Military sources said the buffer zone in Syria is also reaping rewards in protecting Israel, and the military is working with local villagers so they will not only not feel oppressed by the IDF presence but will even feel some benefits.
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