Opinion | What the Cease-Fire Deal Really Means

With the long-sought cease-fire agreement now in place, both President Biden and President-elect Donald Trump can claim credit for the accomplishment, while Israel and Hamas ponder what precisely they have signed up for.

The agreement’s first phase calls for the release of 33 of the about 100 hostages still being held in Gaza, a six-week cease-fire, Israeli withdrawal from populated areas, the release of possibly hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel and the surging of humanitarian assistance into Gaza. Phase 2, to be negotiated during Phase 1, would involve the return of the remaining living hostages, withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza and a permanent end of fighting. The final phase would include the return of the remains of all other hostages and reconstruction of Gaza.

The agreement has been joyful news for some of the hostages and their families and the long-suffering people of Gaza. But the transition into the second phase of the plan is by no means certain, bringing into question whether the war will truly end. For Mr. Trump, who is already claiming the cease-fire as the first success of his presidency, the inconvenient reality is that he is now shackled with responsibility for the deal’s fate.

In the immediate term, Israel will celebrate the return of hostages, most believed to be alive, held in inhumane conditions for 15 months, and will worry about the fate of those who remain in captivity. Many Israelis will also lament the release of imprisoned Palestinians, at least some of whom very likely have Israeli blood on their hands, and wonder if they will return to the business of terrorism. Israeli politics will almost certainly become even more roiled and unstable, amid far-right threats to leave the governing coalition out of opposition to such a deal.

Hamas will benefit from a respite from the war that has severely depleted its ranks. If Palestinians are given a chance to rebuild their lives, Hamas may very well rebuild, too — reconstructing its army and armaments and recruiting fighters to replace the thousands Israel claims to have taken off the battlefield. As badly beaten as Hamas may be, it has survived Israel’s onslaught and will almost assuredly survive as an insurgency. Indeed, if nothing else, this agreement will expose the hollowness of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s putative vision of total victory over Hamas.

Gazans, for their part, face a staggering humanitarian catastrophe that has traumatized a generation. The Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health has said that more than 46,600 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the war started, though it does not differentiate between combatants and civilians. The war has produced enormous hardship in the enclave: starvation, a severe lack of water and health care, and the destruction of vast areas of housing and infrastructure.