Preoccupied with its troops in Russia, North Korea unlikely to embrace Trump’s overture soon

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — In its first direct criticism of the Trump administration, North Korea lashed out at U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for calling it a “rogue” state and warned Monday that such “coarse and nonsensical remarks” will never contribute to U.S. interests.

The statement is the latest in a series of North Korean signals that it’s not interested in resuming diplomacy with the United States anytime soon, though Trump has said he’ll reach out to its leader Kim Jong Un.

Many experts say that Kim, preoccupied with his deployment of troops to Russia, is likely concentrating on developments in the Russia-Ukraine war for now. But they say Kim would eventually seriously consider Trump’s overture if he assessed he cannot maintain the current solid partnership with Russia after the war ends.

“Now, Kim Jong Un is desperate to maintain the unshakable alliance with Russia but it remains to be seen whether Russia would do so as he wishes,” said Moon Seong Mook, an analyst for the Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.

Here’s a look at prospects for a possible restart of the Trump-Kim diplomacy:

Trump hints at return to negotiations with Kim

During his first term, Trump met Kim three times in 2018-19, becoming the first sitting U.S. president to hold a summit with a North Korean leader. The negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program eventually fell apart, but Trump’s return spawned speculation that a fresh round of talks could begin soon.

On his inauguration day, Trump, speaking to U.S. troops in South Korea via video, bragged of his personal ties with Kim.

“You have somebody with pretty bad intentions, I guess,” Trump said. “You would say that although I developed a pretty good relationship with him but he’s a tough cookie.”

During a Fox News interview broadcast on Jan. 23, Trump called Kim “a smart guy” and “not a religious zealot.” Asked whether he will reach out to Kim again, Trump replied, “I will, yeah.”

North Korea keeps up its hostility against the U.S.

North Korea hasn’t directly responded to Trump’s overture but has pressed ahead with its weapons testing activities and bellicose rhetoric against the U.S. In December, Kim vowed to implement the “toughest” anti-U.S. policy.

Kim likely doubts what concessions he could wrest from Trump, given their previous talks collapsed in Vietnam after the American president rebuffed Kim’s offer to dismantle his main nuclear complex, a limited denuclearization step, in return for broad sanctions relief. The breakdown was probably a setback for Kim domestically though the summits provided him with the the badly needed diplomatic recognition on the world stage.

“Kim personally suffered huge humiliation due to a no-deal in Hanoi,” said Kwak Gil Sup, head of One Korea Centre, a website specializing in North Korean affairs. “I don’t think he would promptly respond to Trump’s overture.”

Kim said in November that the negotiations with the United States only confirmed Washington’s “unchangeable” hostility toward his country and described his nuclear buildup as the only way to counter external threats. Kwak said North Korea will still likely avoid high-profile provocations like a nuclear test, knowing that Trump focuses more on other issues like tariff wars and China.

On Monday, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said that Rubio’s comments reaffirmed that the U.S. hostile policy remains unchanged. It likely referred to Rubio’s appearance on “The Megyn Kelly Show” on Jan. 30, in which he called North Korea and Iran “rogue states” while addressing foreign policy challenges.

For now, Kim is focused on the Russia-Ukraine war

Kim’s priority seems to be an estimated 10,000-12,000 North Korean troops sent to support Russia’s three-year war efforts against Ukraine, the North’s first major participation in a foreign war. North Korea has supplied a vast amount of artillery and other conventional weapons to Russia as well.

In return, North Korea appears to be receiving economic and military assistance from Russia. Last June, Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a landmark pact vowing mutual military assistance if either country is attacked. Seoul, Washington and their partners worry Putin might give Kim sophisticated technologies that can sharply enhance his nuclear missile programs.

The booming ties with Russia have helped Kim bear the brunt of the U.S.-led pressure campaign on North Korea. But it’s not clear if the two countries would maintain the same level of relationship after the war’s end.

“When the war is over, Kim may not be such a vital partner for Putin any longer,” Moon said. “Given that, if Kim fails to win what he wants from Putin, he could switch his diplomatic policy focus to the United States.”