Rolling back on climate actions may spell rise in preventable illness – study | Air pollution

Countries that weaken or stop their net zero and climate actions may be consigning their populations to decades of preventable illness.

Gains from net zero are often presented as global benefits and mainly for future generations. But less fossil fuel use also means less air pollution which results in local health gains right away.

For example, rapid health gains are predicted from policies for US net zero by 2050. By 2035, between 4,000 to 15,000 fewer US residents would die annually from air pollution, saving the US economy $65bn to $128bn, with even greater benefits thereafter.

A study, led by Imperial College London, has found that there are large health gains from UK net zero actions.

Dr Mike Holland, who was part of the study team, said: “Fundamental changes required for net zero will bring long lasting benefits to UK health. Or turn that around. If we don’t take the net zero path, we will be sicker. This would be a double own goal on both climate and health.”

The researchers looked at the net zero pathways for transport and buildings in the UK’s sixth carbon budget. Health improvements came about from less air pollution and also increased exercise from more walking, cycling and e-biking.

By 2060 the economic gains from fewer deaths would amount to £26bn-£31bn. New evidence meant they were also able to estimate gains from less illness too; around £20bn adding to the economic benefits from net zero.

Some gains would be expected straight away, as air pollution decreased. These include fewer new cases of asthma in children and adults, as well as reduced hospital admissions for breathing and heart problems. This is consistent with recent health improvements that followed Bradford’s clean air zone and others around Europe.

Fewer strokes and heart attacks would emerge more slowly over five years as air pollution started to reduce. For lung cancer, the reduction in cases would be expected to lag air pollution improvements by six to 20 years.

But the gains would not stop in 2060. Children born in the 2050s would suffer from fewer air pollution illnesses as they grew up and aged as adults. Although less certain than the other illnesses studied, the greatest long-term gains could be in cases of dementia.

Walking, cycling and e-biking as part of net zero, would also lead to health gains.

Prof Christian Brand, part of the study team, said: “If transport decarbonisation focuses mainly on commuting, how much health improvement and emissions reduction are we leaving on the table? Without policies that support all forms of mobility – especially the short, everyday trips that reduce car dependency – are we missing a crucial opportunity to maximize the full benefits of net zero?”

Participation is key to maximising these gains across society, especially amongwomen and older people. The study found that people walking or cycling for transport could expect to an average of five and half months longer life expectancy, and a healthier life.