The weekend byelection results were close to Labor and the Greens’ worst case scenario – but it’s not all good news for the Liberals | Victorian politics

Counting in the Werribee byelection is still under way. But even if Labor manages to scrape through, the Victorian government is just a few hundred disgruntled votes away from losing its grip on this heartland seat.

That is a problem Jacinta Allan knows cannot be ignored.

At the time of writing, Labor’s once-comfortable margin in Melbourne’s outer west has gone from 10.9% at the 2022 state election to a razor-thin 0.6%.

The party’s share of first-preference votes plummeted from 45% to a dismal 28.7%.

If this trend were replicated across the state – though this is unlikely given the different dynamics in each electorate – it would result in a devastating loss of 30-odd seats at the next election in 2026.

Such a result would not only end the Labor’s three-term hold on power but potentially leave it in the political wilderness for years to come.

And while voters are able to distinguish between state and federal politics, several Victorian MPs in Canberra are also nervous the poor result could be replicated at the federal election, due to be called in the next few months.

One federal MP said the result was proof of “voter anger” at the state government, which will “brush off” on the federal election.

“Anyone who claims it won’t is kidding themselves. The reality is the Labor brand has taken a dive in Victoria.”

Another said: “It just shows that we can’t take Victoria for granted any more.”

Premier’s bad week

The result caps a horror week for Allan, who on Tuesday announced a vague review of the state’s bail laws, only for one of the ministers overseeing the review to deny it existed on Wednesday.

Then, on Thursday, it was revealed eight people on bail had been left unmonitored for over a week, with the attorney general only finding out due to a media inquiry.

Speaking on Sunday, the premier insisted she was the right person to lead her party. She said Victorians were “looking for their governments to do more” to ease cost-of-living pressures.

“I absolutely intend to look at what more we can do to support working people,” Allan said.

According to a state Labor MP, it’s an admission the approach taken both in Victoria and at the federal level – retreating from spending as the Reserve Bank hiked interest rates – has hurt the very people the party is meant to represent.

Or as one federal Labor MP put it: “People might be earning more, they might be paying a little less tax, but the higher interest rates are making it harder for them to feel any real improvement.

“That’s why it’s not enough to say, ‘Look what we’ve done.’ We’ve got to do more.”

What “more” looks like, however, depends on who you ask.

One state Labor MP suggested the party should return its focus to “infrastructure, health, education, jobs” – instead of trying to “out-Liberal the Liberals” on crime.

A group within caucus are also urging a shift of investment away from the Suburban Rail Loop to local projects.

All agree, however, it’s a cue for action.

“It’s a wake-up call for the western-suburb MPs, for who these seats used to be a lottery ticket, a guaranteed job for life, to actually get out and engage with their constituents,” a former Labor operative said.

Another Labor source said: “In the staff and caucus, there’s this sense of hubris and entitlement to government – that’s the greatest enemy right now. We can get through it if we come together and remember who we’re meant to represent.”

Allan chose to deliver her mea culpa outside Arden station, on the yet-to-open Metro Tunnel train line.

It’s served as a message to MPs that after years of construction and cost overruns, both the Metro Tunnel and the West Gate Tunnel are due to open later this year – offering them a chance to deliver something that will have an impact on voters’ lives.

“One thing we’ve got that the federals don’t have is time,” a state Labor MP said.

“By the time we get to next year, it’s likely we will have had some successive rate cuts, people will be feeling more confident, we’ll have a heap of new infrastructure running. The wind will be in our sails.”

Or, as another quipped: “The feds will face the baseball bats, which hopefully means we won’t.”

Liberals see modest gains

Another glimmer of hope for Labor is that despite the drubbing on primary votes, only a trickle of voters in Werribee decided to jump ship to the Liberal party.

Despite the 16.7% swing away from Labor on first-preference votes, the Liberal candidate received just a modest 3.7% increase.

It suggests voters at a general election may return to Labor, at least via preferences – so trying to knock off Labor seats with comfortable margins might not be a winning strategy for the Coalition.

It’s certainly not a big enough showing for state Liberal leader Brad Battin and Peter Dutton if they believe their respective pathways to government will be through the outer suburbs.

“It was a perfect storm, the perfect opportunity to pick the seat up and they didn’t,” the former Labor operative said.

Instead, voters appeared to shift from Labor to the independent candidate, Paul Hopper, who received 14.7% of first-preference votes, as well as the Victorian Socialists and Legalise Cannabis.

Hopper campaigned for better infrastructure in the west and did not preference other candidates, saying many in the area couldn’t stomach voting either Liberal or Labor. And clearly he was right.

Federally, it’s given the teals some confidence they can hang on to existing seats and possible gain others.

Greens in the doldrums

But it’s another story for the Greens.

In Werribee, the minor party should have benefited from the swing away from Labor, but saw a meagre 0.7% increase in first-preference votes.

Meanwhile in the other byelection held at the weekend, in Prahran, the Greens lost to the Liberals a seat they had held since 2010.

While their primary vote held up at 36%, the Greens failed to pick up any new voters, despite Labor sitting out.

Former Labor MP turned independent candidate Tony Lupton, who garnered nearly 13% of the vote, helped push the Liberals’ Rachel Westaway to 51.6% in the two-party preferred count.

On Sunday, the Greens leader, Ellen Sandell, said Lupton’s campaign was to blame, along with poor turnout and a lack of absentee votes, which usually help the party secure support from its younger, more transient base.

But it comes off the back of the Greens’ underperformance in Victorian local government elections and the Queensland state election.

There are many theories – though many are self-serving – about the dip in support for the Greens. Some speculate it is their alignment with the pro-Palestine cause, pointing to a poor showing in the postal votes in St Kilda East, home to a prominent Jewish community; others cite policies such as rent caps and vacancy taxes on commercial properties.

Local lessons

For the Liberals, it’s also worth taking note of the candidate who got them over the line in the seat.

Westaway lived in Prahran for two decades and proudly boasted being a “moderate” and “socially progressive” Liberal.

In Werribee the party put up a 63-year-old, staunchly Catholic real estate agent who no longer lived in the electorate. Steve Murphy was handpicked by Battin and party headquarters over members of the local Indian diaspora community.

If the Liberals hope to pick up more Labor seats, they may want to find candidates who truly reflect the electorate’s diversity and values.